Why it works?
Contrary to the common believe, investing in S&P 500 is not a passive system, in fact S&P 500 is a trend following active management system by itself: there is a committee responsible for choosing which stocks to be part of the index and also the stocks are equity weighted, which means the stronger one company is, the bigger part of the index it becomes, essentially making it a momentum trend following investment.
The only thing missing from this type of index investment model is the risk management to prevent the regular 50% drawdowns, which are coming sooner or later...
How to use it
We cannot give personal financial advice, but we strongly believe, a portion of someone's portfolio should be invested in a such AI powered, data driven, quantitative model (currently we have approximately 90% of our portfolios invested in this and similar model) and this is how we use it.
The system generates only 1 email weekly each Friday after the market close (so you have all weekend to submit your changes to your broker) and can be on of the 2 ideas bellow:
SPY or similar low cost ETF tracking S&P 500
Cash or Money Market Funds
As we continue to contribute to the account each month, as long as the signal is "S&P 500", we continue to buy until the signal changes to "Cash", at this point we'll move the whole account to money market fund and continue contributing to it until the next signal change to "S&P 500" where switch everything again.
Please note, even tough the ideas are send every Friday, we newer had more than 5 changes per year and the models show that it is not so important to make the change right away when you get the signal, even if you make the change a week or two later, your overall performance will not be affected by much.
We are using SPY as an example, because it is one of the the largest and oldest, but the model works with any low cost ETF (State Street SPLG, BlackRock IVV, Vanguard VOO, etc), mutual fund (Vanguard VFINX, Schwab SWPPX, Fidelity FXAIX, T. Rowe Price PREIX, etc.) or other investing vehicle mirroring the S&P 500 index.
This table to shows how much you need to gain to offset a loss, to see how important drawdown protection actually is:
Percent Loss Percent Gain Required to Recover
5% 5.30%
10% 11.10%
15% 17.60%
20% 25%
25% 33.30%
30% 42.90%
35% 53.80%
40% 66.70%
45% 81.80%
50% 100%
55% 122.20%
60% 150%
65% 185.70%
70% 233.30%
75% 300%
80% 400%
85% 566.70%
90% 900%
95% 1900%
100% wipe out - there is no recovering from this one...