Copy of Research 20230530

Research

AI powered, data driven Quantitative model

Works exactly as the regular passive buy and hold investing in broad SP500 fund, but with approximately one portfolio change per year saves a lot of pain and cuts the major drawdowns by 50%. Plus you receive a weekly email reaffirming your investment strategy to keep you calm during major market down moves.

THE PROBLEM

Money is probability the second most important thing after health, and unfortunately, in today’s society, sometimes you need money to afford health.

Everyone is saying Passive Investing is the best for the average investor, but they never tell you what index fund to buy and more importantly when exactly.

Just holding an index fund for the long term can be actually a mistake and if you’re in the wrong index at the wrong time, it can take you 5, 10, or even 15 years just to break even…

Let’s face it, most people do more research about buying a new car, restaurant or TV, than investing for retirement or any other major purchase, like house, etc.

If you think about it, the average portfolio is either at all time high or losing money (so called period of a drawdown) and the next crisis is always around the corner, could be this year, or next, but it is coming, make no mistake about it...

In last 20 years or so, we had 2 major black swan events resulting in two 50% drawdowns and drawdowns are very important to avoid, because the market might remain under water for very, very long period of time, just check Japan, the strongest market in the world at the time, is still almost 50% down from it's peak for 30 years and counting! Imagine being buy and hold investor about to retire...

On top of that, every 50% drawdown or loss will require 100% gain, just the break even.

It gets even worse at the bottom of a recession/financial crises. This is where people lose jobs and needs those funds to survive and if you are down already 50% and take half of the rest to live off until you find the next job, there is no coming back from this as if you are down 80%, you will need 400% gain to break even

In the end, the Passive Investing is an active decision by itself and I we are here to help you do it the smart way to avoid the losses you cannot simply afford.

THE SOLUTION

We have build an AI powered Quantitative Passive ETF Investing with Robust Downside Protection system running on servers in the cloud, collecting data and making a decision every week on what to do, either be invested in S&P 500 index fund essentially tracking the US economy or switch to cash to preserve your wealth. Essentially Making the Passive Investing Safer and Better for everyone!

Every Friday after the market close you will receive an email or a SMS advising to be either in Cash or invested in any low cost S&P tracking 500 ETF / mutual fund / employer provided fund

One average the portfolio change will happen once a year and some time there will be few years without a change and so far I have seen maximum of 4 changes per year, so the whole concept is designed to avoid fiddling with your portfolio all the time

The addressable market is huge, combined; there are over 100 million accounts at just the six of the most popular online brokerages for retail investors. It can also be offered as a service to financial advisors, banks, etc so we can reach out and help more people…

If you zoom out on the SPY chart bellow and scroll back and forth trough time, you'll see that the market is going up and down all the time. If you think about it the average investor is ether at all time high of it's investment portfolio or in a period of a drawdown. Our goal is to limit the drawdown and still participate in on the upside.

AI Quantitative "Art Invest" model vs Buy and Hold

 As you can see bellow, the rate of return of the 2 models are very similar, but the downside protection of the quantitative model is exceptional compared to buy and hold strategy. (Our AI robot created the name Art Invest Model and we think it is beautiful)

AI Quantitative "Art Invest" model

  • Annualized Return 8.00%
  • Maximum Drawdown 23.83%

Worst drawdowns:

  1. December 28, 2022   -23.83%
  2. December 24, 2018   -21.27%
  3. August 8, 2011           -17.71%
  4. October 30, 1998       -17.55%
  5. August 26, 2010         -14.32%

Buy and Hold model

  • Annualized Return 7.99%
  • Maximum Drawdown 56.48%

Worst drawdowns

  1. March 9, 2009               -56.48%
  2. October 9, 2002            -49.16%
  3. March 23, 2020             -34.10%
  4. October 12, 2022          -25.37%
  5. December 24, 2018      -20.18%
Why it works?

Contrary to the common believe, investing in S&P 500 is not a passive system, in fact S&P 500 is a trend following active management system by itself: there is a committee responsible for choosing which stocks to be part of the index and also the stocks are equity weighted, which means the stronger one company is, the bigger part of the index it becomes, essentially making it a momentum trend following investment.

The only thing missing from this type of index investment model is the risk management to prevent the regular 50% drawdowns, which are coming sooner or later...


How to use it

We cannot give personal financial advice, but we strongly believe, a portion of someone's portfolio should be invested in a such AI powered, data driven, quantitative model (currently we have approximately 90% of our portfolios invested in this and similar model) and this is how we use it.

The system generates only 1 email weekly each Friday after the market close (so you have all weekend to submit your changes to your broker) and can be on of the 2 ideas bellow:

SPY or similar low cost ETF tracking S&P 500
Cash or Money Market Funds


As we continue to contribute to the account each month, as long as the signal is "S&P 500", we continue to buy until the signal changes to "Cash", at this point we'll move the whole account to money market fund and continue contributing to it until the next signal change  to "S&P 500" where switch everything again.

Please note, even tough the ideas are send every Friday, we newer had more than 5 changes per year and the models show that it is not so important to make the change right away when you get the signal, even if you make the change a week or two later, your overall performance will not be affected by much.

We are using SPY as an example, because it is one of the the largest and oldest, but the model works with any low cost ETF (State Street SPLG, BlackRock IVV, Vanguard VOO, etc), mutual fund (Vanguard VFINX, Schwab SWPPX, Fidelity FXAIX, T. Rowe Price PREIX, etc.) or other investing vehicle mirroring the S&P 500 index.

This table to shows how much you need to gain to offset a loss, to see how important drawdown protection actually is:

Percent Loss     Percent Gain Required to Recover
5%                        5.30%
10%                      11.10%
15%                      17.60%
20%                      25%
25%                      33.30%
30%                      42.90%
35%                      53.80%
40%                      66.70%
45%                      81.80%
50%                      100%
55%                      122.20%
60%                      150%
65%                      185.70%
70%                      233.30%
75%                      300%
80%                      400%
85%                      566.70%
90%                      900%
95%                      1900%
100%                    wipe out - there is no recovering from this one...


“Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe.”
Albert Einstein
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